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Showing posts from March 21, 2010

Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months Even though the Fed stuck to its "keep rates low for an extended period" mantra, the dissenting voices on the FOMC are getting louder. The economy is picking up even, though jobs still lag. So more experts think we'll see a rate hike the second half of the year. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Apr 28 0%–0.25%
Jun 23 0%–0.25%
Aug 10 0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Apr 28 <1%
Jun 23 11%
Aug 10 38%